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The EU Referendum: The Key Facts with Links to Sources

This article presents the key graphs and tables so that you can be aware of the truth about the EU Membership debate. Every item is referenced back to a reliable source such as UK government data, just click the link to see it.

The Balance of Payments with the EU and non-EU is shown below:



The current account deficit of over £100 billion or so a year is a truly amazing sum.  The consequences of this deficit are explored in The Imbalance of UK-EU Trade and its Consequences.

How is the UK doing in Trade with the EU? Click on ONS Balance of Payments Annual 2014 and go to Table C to see the source data:

The link records that in 2014 the total exports to the EU were: £226,687 million and Exports to Non-EU were £281,036 million.  The EU exported goods and services worth £288,265 million to the UK in 2014 which was £61,578m more than the UK exported to the EU.

The trend has continued and the Latest available figures, year to Sept 2015  were £223,772m to EU and  £292,731m to Non-EU, the exports to the EU being only 43% of the total.


Where is trade growing?  Click on ONS Exports to non-EU countries overtake exports to the EU for the first time to see the source of this graph:


How much of Eurozone trade (EU-18) went to UK? According to EU Statistics the UK was the leading trading partner with the EU-18 and this UK trade was 12.6% of EU-18 exports:


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Which is the best horse to back?  The following graph comes from The IMF World Economic Outlook Database
The EU seems to be the old nag.

Is the EU the path to El Dorado?  UK accession to the EEC and the Maastricht Treaty should have created a huge spurt in growth - or was it a damp squib?  Can it be true that membership of the EU has little effect on economic performance?  The source for this data is at World Bank Development Indicators


Other developed nations seem to have done just as well, without being in the EU.
Clearly being in the EU has made little difference to our economies over the years but there is evidence (see opening graphs) to suggest that the UK is beginning to suffer as a result of trade and finance imbalances.

Did the EU/EEC make a difference?

The richest countries in the World (per head of population) are:

1      Luxembourg     103,187
2      Switzerland     82,178
3      Qatar           78,829
4      Norway          76,266
5      United States   55,904
6      Singapore       53,224
7      Australia       51,642
8      Denmark         51,424
9      Iceland         51,068
10     San Marino      49,139
11     Sweden          48,966
12     Ireland         48,940
13     Netherlands     44,333
14     United Kingdom  44,118


You don't need to be big and influential to be rich.

As far as the UK economy is concerned there should be no great fears about staying in or leaving.  The crux of the issue is sovereignty.

Is the pound plunging after the announcement of the referendum?


Its been falling since November See XE.com.  Claims that Cameron's announcement was responsible for fall in pound are incorrect.

 


It makes as much sense to say that British company values have recovered since Feb12th owing to expectation of a referendum:

ie: neither claim makes sense.

In 2016 the number of EU workers in the UK workforce reached 2 million See UK Labour Market Statistics:



UK nationals working in the UK increased by 278,000 to 28.28 million
non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 254,000 to 3.22 million
Non-UK nationals now constitute 10.2 percent of the entire workforce.

In 2015 the immigration and migration figures were given in: Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, November 2015

Total immigration  = 636,000 (up 62,000 from YE June 2014).
Emigration = 300,000 (down 20,000 from YE June 2014).
Net migration of 336,000 was the highest on record.
 
Between 2012 and 2015 there has been a large rise in EU migration. This was the result of the relaxation of rules for Bulgarians, Romanians etc. after 2012

According to the Department of Work and Pensions Tabulation Tool about 478,000 UK pensioners received pensions in the EU.

According to Migration Watch there are 407,000 UK born people working in the EU (about one fifth the number of EU Nationals working in UK).



The migration graph at ONS: UK in a European Context is fun to use, actively changing with each year.  The UK is the EU country that accepted most migrants most years.
The German figures contain a large percentage of ethnic Germans returning from Eastern Europe and Russia.

If the UK left the EU the Channel Tunnel is governed by separate treaties and there would be no change to the location of border controls (See Channel Tunnel Concession Agreement (15.2)). "To this end, the frontier controls which are carried out within the boundaries of the Fixed Link will be juxtaposed near to the portals to the tunnels." Controls are at the entry point,. The section is clear that flows are being considered, the flow to the UK enters in France.

The EU and Tariffs

The following countries have almost finalised or have completed Free Trade Agreements with the EU where they pay no trade tariffs: EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA), EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, Colombia, Peru and Japan. 

As a WTO member the EU must trade with other WTO members. It publishes its general tariff rate on the WTO website. The EU has high tariffs on agricultural produce but low tariffs on machinery etc.
The UK's export profile is as follows:

The Top 20 UK Exports of goods are:
                                      £ m   Tariff%   Tariff £m
Mechanical machinery                 38 576    2.5    964.4
Cars                                 25 652    7.5    1923.9
Medicinal & pharmaceutical produ     24 460    2.5    611.5
Electrical machinery                 24 067    2.5    601.675
Other miscellaneous manufactures     12 766    2      255.32
Aircraft                             12 380    2      247.6
Scientific & photographic            11 356    2      227.12
Crude oil                            10 604    1      106.04
Refined oil                          10 585    3      317.55
Organic chemicals                     8 754    2      175.08
Unspecified goods                     7 857    5      392.85
Road vehicles other than cars         6 437    7.5    482.775
Beverages                             6 387    8      510.96
Works of art                          6 101    5      305.05
Clothing                              5 793    10     579.3
Plastics                              5 429    2      108.58
Non-ferrous metals excl. silver       5 310    2      106.2
Miscellaneous metal manufactures      5 145    2.5    128.625
Fertilisers & other chemicals         4 912    2       98.24
Toilet & cleansing preparations       4 870    2       97.4
Iron & steel                          4 733    1       47.33

The Tariff% comes from the WTO Tariff Database

The total value of UK exports in goods in the year to December 2015 was £389,000 m (exc. "erratics").   The value of the top 20 export types was £211,775 m and the total tariff that the EU would charge on these, had they all been exported to the EU, would have been £8,287m without EU membership.  57% were exported elsewhere, to places with lower tariffs so the estimates of about £7.5 billion as the total tariff that the Business for Britain calculated the UK would pay on exports to the world without any trade deals is not vastly out. Certainly a maximum of about £10 bn plus or minus £4 bn (ie: very little in the context of £389 bn annual exports) seems about right.  The UK would charge slightly more in tariffs on imports. The UK pays over £10bn per year to the EU to avoid some of the £10bn in tariffs.  If there were a Brexit the UK government could use import tariffs to pay the export tariffs paid by UK exporters.

Services, including software, have almost no tariffs in most countries and foreign providers are to be treated in the same way as national providers although Insurance companies, Banks etc. need to have branches or partners overseas to manage local regulations (this is also needed in the EU at present).

In other words the Tariff issue is entirely scaremongering, it is not critical to the debate on the EU.

Spending on R&D: the UK contributes about £800m to the EU R&D budget a year, which is about 960m Euros , in return according to Universities UK the EU issued grants totalling 867 million Euros per year from 2007-2012. Scientists cite the EU funding as an important reason for remaining in the EU.

Sovereignty

The proportion of seats held by UK in the European Parliament: UK has 9.7% of seats - non UK has 90.3% of seats.

Proportion of UK votes in EU Council UK has 29 of 345 votes (p324 of Treaties) which is 8.4%.

An independent Scotland would have around 1% of votes in both bodies.

The EU can change political complexion at each election, at present it is Left of centre but could swing fully right and repeal social legislation or swing left and increase it.  The use of current EU policies to justify membership is credible if those doing so are happy for the EU to swing Right and undo these policies.

The Eurozone is fully on course to complete Stage 1 of EMU union by 2017. Stage 1 means that the Council of the Eurogroup approves draft Budgets from the member states, that the banks in the Eurozone are part of a banking union and a host of other financial union measures. The Eurogroup meet before EU Council meetings dealing with finance to decide common policy.  Stage 2 of Eurogroup unification - political union - starts in 2017. See EU Commission document: On steps towards Completing Economic and Monetary Union.
This will turn the Eurozone into what is effectively a single country by 2025.  This will mean that EU Council meetings will consist of 3 parties, the UK, Denmark and the Eurogroup. The Eurogroup, according to the current EU rules, will be able to dictate nearly all EU policy, most vetoes having been removed in 2014.  The UK will then have to choose bewteen joining the Eurogroup in full political union of leaving.

Apart from the impending unification of the Eurogroup, the Treaties also permit EU sovereignty in many areas. The Member State vetoes that were a feature of the EEC were phased out over the 5 years after the Lisbon Treaty.

Some areas, such as Defence and Foreign affairs have special status in the Treaties and most EU Member States see these as being moved under EU control although the UK has been blocking an EU defence force by using almost the last veto available on the defence funding committee (ATHENA Committee).  Expect rapid action after any UK "Remain" vote.  The EU also has competence for external borders.

On other matters the EU has three type of control: total governmental responsibility - known as "Exclusive Competence", governmental responsibility that is delegated to Member States for the time being known as "Shared Competence" and the right to support Member States, known as "Supporting Competence". (See The official EU description)

The actual areas of government available to the EU are listed below (from Treaties as Amended by Lisbon):

Exclusive Competences: customs union, the establishing of the competition rules necessary for the functioning of the internal market, monetary policy for the Member States whose currency is the euro, the conservation of marine biological resources under the common fisheries policy, common commercial policy.


Shared Competences:

a) internal market;
(b) social policy, for the aspects defined in this Treaty;
(c) economic, social and territorial cohesion;
(d) agriculture and fisheries, excluding the conservation of marine biological
resources;
(e) environment;
(f) consumer protection;
(g) transport;
(h) trans-European networks;
(i) energy;
(j) area of freedom, security and justice;
(k) common safety concerns in public health matters, for the aspects defined in this Treaty.


The EU is already empowered to intervene in the areas of government listed above even though it may not have intervened as yet.  This is the reality of "ever closer union". Ever closer union is embedded in the Treaties and cannot be removed by removing references to "ever closer union".



Supporting Competences:

(a) protection and improvement of human health;
(b) industry;
(c) culture;
(d) tourism;
(e) education, vocational training, youth and sport;
(f) civil protection;
(g) administrative cooperation.

However, even in these areas where the EU has little competence it does intervene (for instance the Erasmus Programme for Education).

It should be noted that the UK secured a Member State veto on Harmonised Taxation (corporation/income tax).

Given the extent of EU competences, will the UK disappear as a self governing nation after a decade or two more in the EU, even without further Treaties?

How far do EU leaders support full political union?

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor said:

"we need a political union first and foremost" (BBC News).

Francois Hollande, the French president said:

"Political union is the step that follows fiscal union, banking union, and social union. It will provide a democratic framework for successful integration." (Le Monde)

President Sergio Mattarella of Italy's inaugural speech Feb 2015:

"The EU is now once again a perspective of hope and true political union to be relaunched without delay."

Mariano Rajoy Brey, Spanish prime minister:

"We need to fix these objectives - fiscal union, banking union, political union...And we must set a time scale. We are giving a message that we really want greater European integration. We can't say something is this first, then something else, without saying where we're going," Rajoy said at a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. (Reuters report).

What the European Commission says:

José Manuel Durão Barroso, President of the European Commission  said:

"This is why the Economic and Monetary Union raises the question of a political union and the European democracy that must underpin it."...

.."A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve." (State of the Union 2012 Address to the European Parliament on 12 September 2012).

The EU's Blueprint for a deep and genuine economic and monetary union (and political union) states that:

"This Blueprint for a Deep and Genuine EMU describes the necessary
elements and the steps towards a full banking, economic, fiscal and political union."
 
What the European Central Bank says:

1999 paper by the European Central Bank: Europe: Common Money - Political Union?   In this paper it says that:

"The monetary order established by the Maastricht Treaty with the detailed statute of the European System of Central Banks by itself represents an important building block for the development of a European statehood."

The importance of the connection between monetary union and the establishment of a single state was well understood at the new European Central Bank in 1999:

"So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. "

How does the European Central Bank see the current Euro crisis evolving? Here is an extract from an ECB approved presentation on the subject, Short Term Crisis Management and Long Term Vision, describing the 4 steps to a solution:


  1. The first is a financial union, with a single framework for supervising and resolving banks and for insuring customer deposits. This would build on the single supervisory mechanism now under development and ideally lead to a European version of the FDIC, financed by contributions from the private sector.
  2. The second building block is a fiscal union, with powers at the euro area level to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies and to limit national debt issuance. With these powers in place, a path towards common debt issuance would also be possible, but only at the end of the process.
  3. The third building block is an economic union, which would help euro area members to remain fit and to adjust flexibly within monetary union. This could entail, for example, moving from soft coordination of structural reforms in Member States to an enforceable framework at the euro area level.
  4. And the fourth building block is a political union, which aims at strengthening democratic participation. This final building block is equally important, as the other measures cannot be effective unless they are legitimate. This requires innovative thinking as regards the involvement of the European Parliament and national parliaments in decision-making on euro area issues.
History of US Involvement in the EU

Few people realise that European Union was an objective of the WWII Marshall Plan, see Origins of the EU - US Involvement and that US commitment to the project has continued.


EU Legislative Procedure 2014

Source Robert Schuman Foundation.






Comments

lasancmt said…
It must seem so unfair to kippers that EU sells more to UK than vice versa, but unfortunately leaving a market which represents 45% of your exports does not seem a smart idea. Why not try a simple thing like 'buy British'? What's this obsession to be seen in an executive BMW Audi or Merc or a stylish Citroen Peugeot or Renault. The French do it!

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